The sales volume of steel products increased from being upgraded, stainless steel pipes, stainless steel profiles, and seamless steel pipes

In the short term, it is difficult to change the pattern of "tight goods and high prices" in the international market. On the one hand, in February this year, the global PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) rose for two consecutive months month on month, approaching the boom and bust line; On the other hand, except for China, the world's steel supply has not yet fully recovered, and steel production in most countries and regions has declined year-on-year. Due to its impact, China's steel enterprises currently have sufficient export orders. According to statistics, in February, the index of new export orders for steel circulation enterprises nationwide was 51.5%, up 3.4 percentage points from the previous month. The author expects that in the first quarter of this year, China's steel exports will increase by more than 40% year-on-year.

Third, indirect steel exports continued to maintain growth. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, from January to February this year, China's total export value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 0.4% year-on-year, accounting for 58% of the total export value. Among them, the total value of automobile exports was 96.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.9%. According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in the first two months of this year, the total export value of excavators nationwide increased by 34% year-on-year, while the total export value of loaders increased by 15% year-on-year. The author expects that in the first quarter of this year, indirect steel exports will continue to maintain a high growth level.

Fourth, steel production has shifted from declining to rising, and steel prices have fluctuated and increased. In 2023, driven by domestic and foreign demand, China's production of steel and finished products has shifted from a decline to an increase. From January to February this year, China's crude steel production reached 168.7 million tons, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year; The output of steel reached 206.23 million tons, up 3.6% year-on-year. The author expects that in the first quarter of this year, the growth situation of crude steel and finished product production in China will not change. At the same time, due to the accelerated release of demand and strong impact of positive expectations, steel prices fluctuated and rose. As of March 15, the comprehensive price of steel nationwide had increased by 6.8% compared to the end of last year.

The author believes that with the overall stabilization and recovery of the macro economy, the steel market will also rise in demand, production, and price. At the same time, it should be noted that this year, the external environment is still complex and volatile, and there are still many uncertain factors. In particular, the recent collapse of some overseas financial institutions has increased the risk of spillovers, and China's steel exports will face many constraints in the future. Overall, the author expects that the overall trend of the steel market this year is still good, and the market is expected to stabilize and rebound. However, market participants should be cautious in their optimistic expectations.